Juggling Dynamite

The BioNTech and Pfizer vaccine announced last week was developed by the husband and wife-co-founders of BioNTech, Dr. Ugur Sahin (age 55) and Dr. Özlem Türeci (age 53), and their team, based in Germany.   See The Husband-and-Wife-Team Behind the leading vaccine to Solve COVID-19:

BioNTech began work on the vaccine in January, after Dr. Sahin read an article in the medical journal The Lancet that left him convinced that the coronavirus, at the time spreading quickly in parts of China, would explode into a full-blown pandemic. Scientists at the company, based in Mainz, Germany, cancelled vacations and set to work on what they called Project Lightspeed.

In 2001, the couple founded Ganymed Pharmaceuticals to develop drugs to treat cancer using monoclonal antibodies. In 2016, they sold Ganymed for $1.4 billion. In 2018, Dr. Sahin said at an infectious disease conference that their company might be able to use its so-called messenger RNA technology to rapidly develop a vaccine in the event of a global pandemic.  The below graphic from the Washington Post shows how RNA vaccines work.

Last year BioNTech went public–its shares doubling since June, to a recent market cap of $21 billion–making the two co-founders among the wealthiest people in Germany.

The billionaire scientists reportedly still live with their teenage daughter in a modest apartment near their office, ride bicycles to work and do not own a car.

They partnered with Pfizer to accelerate the testing and distribution of their vaccine and they’ve not yet finalized the financial details of their agreement.  The reported results of their recent trials have not yet been peer-reviewed.

Mass-vaccination campaigns involve a complex network of suppliers, transporters, administrators and middle-people at the best of times.   BioNTech’s has the added challenge of needing two doses per person, administered 4 weeks apart, and storage around minus 70 degrees Celsius (-94 Fahrenheit–similar to the South Pole in winter) which no hospitals, medical offices or transportation vehicles currently possess.

Speaking to the BBC’s this week Dr. Sahin said that if their vaccine succeeds it would reduce transmission of the virus – but some difficult days still lie ahead.

Here is a direct video link.

The below graphic from The Economist summarizes the seven leading vaccine contenders currently in phase three trials.  Here’s hoping…In the meantime, it appears, in a best-case scenario we face another nine to twelve months of disciplined social distancing and mask use, not to mention associated financial, social and mental health challenges.  Could be longer.  Acceptance, patience and a longer-term mindset are key.

Danielle was a guest with Jim Goddard on Talk Digital Network, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets.  You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here.

Pandemic and sudden income loss have made people more aware of their vulnerability.  Even as interest rates have fallen again since March, loan demand is weak and cash savings in bank accounts have risen sharply.  These are financial-health-restoring-trends in the right direction for individuals; not so much for banks and other lenders.  See Deposit interest rates are taking a pandemic nosedive:

The average rate on savings accounts at U.S. banks stands at 0.08%, down from 0.1% in early spring, according to Bankrate.com, a personal-finance website.

But for many people, money stashed in a savings account represents an important protection against potential financial hardship. Easy access to that money outweighs the fact that they are being paid peanuts in interest.

Andrew Frisbie, executive vice president for consumer pricing at Novantas, said the pandemic had made many customers more interested in saving money for an emergency.

At the same time, demand for commercial and industrial loans is also weak, as shown below, courtesy of DailyShot.com, for small, medium and large firms.  When debt levels are already high and revenues/income/demand weak, more debt is not ‘stimulative’.

Some lucid observations in this segment…

Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, joined Yahoo Finance Live to give his take on Bitcoin and his outlook for a de-globalizing economy and gridlocked US government.  Here is a direct video link.

Widening wealth gaps continue to increase social unrest:

“…suppose that you are permanently unemployed or you’re underemployed or you’re at risk of losing job, you’re also among the people that has almost no financial wealth. Just to give a number, 85% of all equity wealth in the United States is held by the top 10% of households. 51% of it is held by the top 1% of households. The bottom 50% of households has almost zero equity wealth, 0.5%. And the top 60 billionaires in United States have more wealth than the bottom 50% of the population that is 160 million people.”