Juggling Dynamite

After falling 10% since March 2020, the US dollar index has helped fuel a dramatic recovery in risk markets and push speculative sentiment back to record highs.

As shown in my partner Cory Venable’s weekly chart below since 1996, $92 is now testing the dollar’s long term support.

A bounce in this area is likely to offer the next sobriety test for stock and commodity prices.  A definitive close below $92 could re-test the $87 level–where the dollar topped in 2009– and bring further gas for the risk rally.

Stocks are so far beyond economic reality and positive investment metrics at this point, everything is now reduced to a trade. Risk-on or risk-off into year-end?  All eye’s on the greenback!  Treasury yields today are betting on a dollar bounce.  We shall see.

In this episode, Dr. Osterholm and host Chris Dall discuss the exponential growth of cases in the US and elsewhere, more promising news regarding vaccines and the obstacles that remain, the impact of surging cases on healthcare workers, and an opportunity to help out with the Frontline Families Fund.  Here is a direct audio link, with Dr. O starting at 6:23.

16% of those in a recent survey say they would not opt to receive an approved vaccine, another 15% are not sure.

Over the last decade, countries have raced each other to the bottom cutting tax rates for the largest corporations as government deficits have soared.  A minimum federal tax rate is needed.

President-elect Joe Biden campaigned on raising taxes on the wealthy and corporations. But the fate of Biden’s plan rests largely on whether or not Democrats take control of the Senate. Here is a direct video link.