Juggling Dynamite

Exponential math is very hard to grasp.  Every person with the COVID-19 virus infects approximately two people. Some less, some more. The infection rate doubles every six days.  That means that if 50,000 people have the virus today, then in 6 days, 100,000 people will have it. In another 12 days it’s 400,000 and less than two weeks later it’s over a million people.  We have 330 million people in the US. The experts expect that 40-70% of people will be infected. Exponential growth does not take that long to get to those scary high numbers. Every six days we delay, the number of infections double.  This YouTube video does a great job of explaining this.

Also see or listen to the audio reading of this article: A COVID-19 coronavirus update from concerned physicians.

It is a classic financial error to put funds that are needed for operating expenses, or a capital purchase like real estate, or another asset, into publicly-traded financial products like equities, corporate debt (or funds and ETFs of them).

Unfortunately, many people have been foolishly doing this in recent years, and now, as financial markets tank, funds needed for near term costs and real estate contracts, are evaporating.  This magnifies the contagion from financial markets through other parts of the economy.

At the same time, lower revenues and wages, rising unemployment and a looming recession should naturally make buyers less inclined to take on larger amounts of debt and spending.

We are only a couple of weeks into what is likely to be at least a few quarters of intensifying financial strain here, and already people are missing large chunks of the funds they need to function and complete realty contracts.   See ‘Prices are not going to go higher’:  COVID-19 expected to put a chill on the spring housing market:

“Up until three days ago, this virus was having no impact on the housing market,” saidJohn Pasalis, President of Realosophy. “Then suddenly, we start getting all these calls, people sounding anxious and wondering what their next move should be. I got a query from a couple who are worried about their pre-construction condo and are wondering if they should assign it,” he told the Post.

…When the markets started crashing at the end of February, my younger clients were panicking because many of them were relying on their investments for a downpayment,” he said…

Janet (not her real name), a 33-year-old living in a two-bedroom condominium in downtown Toronto had been hoping to upgrade to a home, partly relying on investments in her TFSA. But the market crash has severely disrupted her plans of upgrading — she told the Post she had lost about $14,000 that she was counting on for a downpayment.”

This is the very definition of inept financial planning, and any ‘advisers’ who have been endorsing such an approach, should be jettisoned.  Wake up, people!

Propaganda has a long tradition and more reach today than ever in human history.  We are all susceptible.  This documentary is a worthwhile review.

Why are we so easily seduced by propaganda? Propaganda: The Art of Selling Lies traces the history of the art of persuasion from ancient cave art to the present, where we are bombarded by more propaganda than ever before. Featuring contemporary artists including Kent Monkman, Shepard Fairey, and Ai Weiwei. Viewer discretion is advised.

Here is a direct video link.