Juggling Dynamite

I am just finishing Chris Turner’s important book The Patch: the people, pipelines and politics of the oil sands.  Every Canadian could benefit from reading it and learning more about this history and what present challenges import for Alberta and the Canadian economy going forward.

Even while optimistically assuming that the global economy strengthens rather than weakens in 202o, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is forecasting that demand for OPEC crude oil will slump for a third consecutive year to 29.3 million barrels a day.  This is 650k barrels less per day than the 14 OPEC members (who produce 40% of world supply) are presently pumping under their reduced output agreement.  See: Oil supply to swamp demand, squeeze OPEC in 2020, IEA says.  As global growth sputters, the pressure to abandon restraint agreements and increase output/sales intensifies among debt-laden and cash-strapped emerging economy producers.  Meanwhile, supply is also expanding in places like North America, Norway and Brazil.

In the near-term, economic weakness threatens to undermine demand more than expected over the next couple of years.  Beyond that, innovation in energy efficiency, non-petroleum based-plastics, building supplies and fertilizers, as well as electric engines and vehicles, will all continue to shift demand away from oil going forward.  These are tectonic plates shifting under the status quo, adapting to the reality of change is essential.

I was fortunate to spend my childhood living in the same village as my maternal grandfather and grandmother who were, by the time I came along, both retired, financially stable and emotionally available to their grandchildren.  The time and energy they invested in our care and instruction were invaluable, and though they passed by the time I was 19, to this day they remain two of the most important relationships of my lifetime.  I still think of them pretty much daily.  This weekend, as we celebrate our father figures, may we remember all of the men who lead and support through loving example every day.  See The secret of being a good father:

Babies with emotionally engaged dads show better mental development as toddlers and are less likely to have behavioural problems later on, compared to babies whose dads behave in a more detached way. Older children benefit, too. Those whose fathers, or father figures, are more emotionally supportive, tend to be more satisfied with life and have better relationships with teachers and other children…

“The factors that lead to the formation of relationships are exactly the same for mother and father…It really comes down to the emotional availability, recognising the child’s needs, responding to those, providing the comfort and support that the child needs.”

Canadian exporters are reporting widespread concerns about a global recession, with sentiment in the sector falling to the lowest level in seven years, according to a  survey by the country’s export financing agency.

Export Development Canada’s trade confidence index, a composite gauge based on a bi-annual survey of 1,000 businesses, dropped to 69.8, compared with 73.7 at the end of last year. It’s the lowest reading since 2011 and the second lowest since the last recession a decade ago.  Here is a direct video link.

The US CEO confidence index published by the Conference Boards has also reached recessionary levels, last seen heading into the 2008 downturn.