Bear market slowly picking up believers

I have done 9 media interviews in the past 5 days alone, so I know that the bear market is finally starting to grab the angst of the populace. The advising community is still wildly oblivious it seems, with lots of happy talk about “don’t panic, don’t sell, sit tight…this is a buying opportunity.” Same old useless bunk. Here is the question for you: if your advisor never told you to sell and raise cash at any point in the last year or so, how the bleep bleep are you supposed to be snapping up buying opportunities?

My thought is that there may be quite a bit further to go here before the buying opps get really valuable. And it could take a few more weeks or months before that happens, with lots of noisy up and down days in between. We likely have a good deal more disappointment to get priced into asset values here. The number one job of capital today is to get through this bear market liquid, safe and with as few losses (even some gains) as possible. Then it will get really exciting for those who are prepared.

Monthly charts are best for cutting out short-term noise, and this one of the XIU (investable version of the TSX 60) paints a good picture of where we have been, where we are now, and where we may bottom in the weeks ahead. Each time the price has breached the orange circles below (as it has done year to date again) the Canadian stock market (and major global markets) have retraced 50% from their peak to re-test long-term secular support. That would be about 25% further down from today’s levels. Stay awake and stay tuned.

Source:  Market Technician, Cory Venable. VPIC

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3 Responses to Bear market slowly picking up believers

  1. dazzo says:

    HFT Scammers Crowding Out Continues

  2. Barry Pither says:

    So why would Fairfax Financial, which made 25% between July, 2008 and March 2009 be part of a private investors’ group to purchase 18% of the Bank of Ireland?

  3. dave says:

    I have heard some say that this is the end of an ABC correction and we are at the very start of a big up elliot wave leg right at these levels. If thats the case that would mean oil prices will be above 100 bucks a barrell again and the economy will pick up steam. Does anyone truly believe we can withstand such high oil prices at this point? Not me.

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