Risk markets jumped out of the gate this morning, supposedly in response to a report suggesting US jobless claims last week fell to 339,000 (seasonally adjusted) the lowest since January 2008. Non Seasonally Adjusted, initial claims actually jumped by 26K to 327K. The fact is that these initial estimates have been repeatedly under-stated over the past year, only to be heavily revised up once real numbers are tallied. The following chart captures the divergence of the initially reported numbers in blue versus the later revised numbers year to date in 2012. So while the Vice President may pump today’s headline in tonight’s debate, today’s initial number likely bears no resemblance to the reality of US jobless claims.
Stories that are more revealing of present world trends in my view include the following:
- Economic Fears deepen as Japan’s machinery orders fall more than expected in August
- Group of 11 countries agree to impose financial transaction levy
- Emails back lawsuit that equity firms KKR and Blackstone colluded on big deals
- Financial advisers not attracting new clients, but have increased revenues by charging existing clients 18% more
- Global PC sales fall 8.3% in Q3 yoy, as back-to-school promos fall flat
- Tapes support criminal prosecution expected over JP Morgan $6B loss
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“Essentially, the Fed is inserting a sizeable policy wedge between market values and underlying fundamentals. And investors in virtually every market segment – including bonds, commodities, equities, foreign exchange and volatility – have benefited handsomely. In the process, many asset prices have been taken close to what would normally be regarded as bubble territory, with some already there.
Central bank action, both real and perceived, rules the investment day, and will continue to do so for now. This is also the case in Europe.”…..Mohamed El-Erian
So we wait…..2014?