Stories worth noting this morning

Risk markets jumped out of the gate this morning, supposedly in response to a report suggesting US jobless claims last week fell to 339,000 (seasonally adjusted) the lowest since January 2008. Non Seasonally Adjusted, initial claims actually jumped by 26K to 327K. The fact is that these initial estimates have been repeatedly under-stated over the past year, only to be heavily revised up once real numbers are tallied. The following chart captures the divergence of the initially reported numbers in blue versus the later revised numbers year to date in 2012. So while the Vice President may pump today’s headline in tonight’s debate, today’s initial number likely bears no resemblance to the reality of US jobless claims.

Stories that are more revealing of present world trends in my view include the following:

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One Response to Stories worth noting this morning

  1. michael says:

    “Essentially, the Fed is inserting a sizeable policy wedge between market values and underlying fundamentals. And investors in virtually every market segment – including bonds, commodities, equities, foreign exchange and volatility – have benefited handsomely. In the process, many asset prices have been taken close to what would normally be regarded as bubble territory, with some already there.

    Central bank action, both real and perceived, rules the investment day, and will continue to do so for now. This is also the case in Europe.”…..Mohamed El-Erian

    So we wait…..2014?

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