Several worthwhile articles have come across my desk this week. Here are a few:
- The 12 cognitive biases that prevent you from being rational
- 4th quarter earnings will be an unmitigated disaster
- Unlucky ’13 beckons for gold miners
- The top 10 reasons to be bullish in 2013 (yes sarcasm)
- Desperate for yield investors (and their advisers) are putting capital in harm’s way by over-paying for dividend-paying equities and many bonds. Stocks have less principle security than junk bonds, and junk bonds–the riskiest credit paper available-now have an average yield of less than 6%, the lowest payment for the capital risk ever in market history. This gives a sense of the madness of income-starved crowds today. See Corporate Bonds boom on search for yield
- Howard Marks memo to clients 2013 explaining the human behavior that drives market cycles: “The wise man invested aggressively in late 2008 and early 2009. I believe only the fool is doing so now”. See the whole memo here.
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Unlucky 13 for gold miners. More gold hate. Hmmm…is that why gold is up 21.00 per ounce today?
Let it be. Just keep track of the daily gold price either up or down. But this incessant gold hate by the management here is getting a bit ‘thin’. And I mean ‘gold hate’.
Probably envious they didn’t load the boat up with bullion at 257 in 2001? Oh well, you all had your chance. Nobody twisted your arms. Its a free market. The coins were on the counter to be had at 300 per US $20.00 each, much less for ‘gold notes’ of the same denomination. Coin show this Sunday. Time to ‘talk to the experts’.
Agree. Now, even the corp. bond are a little too pricey for me. For example, a current issuance of 10 year corp bond (Al rated) with a coupon rate of ~ 3.19%. A 5 year ~2.15% bank note issuance is filled and closed in 2 days. It just doesn’t make sense anymore. Thanks. Langley, B.C.
As with gun owners, if goldbugs could just present their case in a respectful manner without resorting to supercilious rantings they may get some respect.
Just like a school yard bully who cannot win a debate and verbal assault has no influence they resort to the lowest common denominator.
They stain the responsible owners of both with the contemptuous vile they spew.
You might appear to be the genius in the room but plenty have played that tune before. Timing, geography and patience are everything when you buy any asset class. I congratulate you on your success.
Sure – Gold has been a winner and one looks great if you bought in 2002. But what if you believed as strongly as you do in 1979 when everyone, as I recall, was praising gold as a ‘no brainer’. I can still see my cousin at the dinner table happily extolling the virtues of the yellow metal while my wary self begged to differ. He lost his shirt. Do you have an exit strategy in case you’re wrong?
As an aside, I have done very, very well in equities since March, 2009 but I know there is a lot of luck as well as guts in my case. What if I sold my house the year before and invested in the same stocks as I own today? Sure I would still be ahead since early 2008, but it would have been a nasty lesson.
I’ve since built up a 20% cash reserve because this cyclical bull is quite long in the tooth and those I respect are seeing dark clouds.
Yeah – forget that Gold is up 500% in the past 11 years – and 2012 was the 8th year in a row that it outperformed the DOW. And yet you can’t find a ‘Financial Planner’ that recommended Gold in the past X years. Bias indeed… after the Treasury bubble bursts – there really won’t be anything left to recommend. If it goes to F.O.A.’s numbers I wonder what Danielle will say then?
Addendum: … Finally an intelligent response from a very capable and articulate young man to the condescending, bullying tactics of that pompous puppet Piers Morgan. I am shocked, shocked that they let him on to debate. I think Mr. Morgan may have to rethink his tactics as his torch dims.