Juggling Dynamite

Danielle was a guest with Jim Goddard on Talk Digital Network, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here.

It is critical to keep in mind that monetary policy changes impact the real economy at a lag of several quarters.  So the tightening cycle that ran from December 2015 to December 2018 will continue to dampen global demand over the next several quarters, even if central banks tighten no further and move to more stimulative efforts in the months ahead.

The speed and spread of global slowing in the last few months have alarmed the consensus so much that the futures market has now moved from pricing a 90% probability of US rate hikes in 2019 to zero percent today, as shown on left courtesy of The Daily Shot.

This Hedgeye cartoon sums the recent change in thinking well.

The segment below offers a good summary of spreading global weakness and how little monetary easing room suggests the incoming downturn may be longer/deeper than average.

Joachim Fels, global economic advisor at Pacific Investment Management Co., talks about the global economy, monetary and fiscal policies. Here is a direct video link.

Illegal money flows in Canada have inflated property prices and profits for insiders in gambling, luxury retail, the realty sector and lenders, while costing Canadians greatly in terms of unaffordable home prices, related household debt, increased crime and lost tax revenues.

Court cases have collapsed, news conferences cancelled, and political leaders stonewalled in multiple attempts to inform the public of the magnitude of British Columbia’s problem with illegal gambling.  Not that things haven’t been going on away from the public eye. For at least six years, someone who witnessed criminal behavior has been quietly co-operating with the RCMP and helping reporters ask the right questions.

In this week’s W5 investigation, he reveals his identity in public for the first time, hoping it will help all Canadians appreciate the scope of our country’s problem with organized crime and money laundering.  It’s a massive problem in Vancouver, but the city isn’t alone.  Here is a direct video link.