Gary Shilling was on Bloomberg yesterday explaining the possibility of parity for the Euro-Dollar exchange rate. That would be a further 25% increase of the U$ versus the Euro at this point and is likely to have broadly negative implications for other risk assets over the next few months. A strengthening dollar also presents extra hurdles for the Obama administration's mandate to create new jobs asap. Every 1 percent increase in the dollar, averaged against other major currencies, knocks U.S. exports down by about $20 billion annually and destroys some 150,000 jobs, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington-based nonpartisan research group.
As I have said for some time now, it is not that the US is doing much right these days, but more that the world is now realizing the Euro zone is deeply mired in its own debt problems and even less along the road to solutions than the US. Since the credit crisis hit first in America the focus has been mostly on US ills for the past couple of years as the world punished the dollar. Now the realization is building that the EU problems are massive and even harder to manage than the US in many ways with all of the EU's separate governments, policies and philosophies.
Watch the Bloomberg clip here.
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